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Stock Trends: Portfolio
Dow Jones Industrials Bullish Crossover
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Trading History

The Stock Trends Bullish Crossover () and Bearish Crossover ()  are key signals that a long-term price trend has changed, but for many investors these moving average indicators appear to be too lagging current market prices to generate trading success. Indeed, the premise of trend analysis is that moving average market timing buy signals forgo early price movement in order to definitively categorize a new price trend, and that trade exit markers provided by moving averages are well behind price action trade exits – a dual handicap that some investors would find intolerable.

However, the best way to challenge these misgivings is to produce a trading record that substantiates an ongoing trading plan employing moving average crossovers as both buy and sell signals. Long-term investment returns achieved when using the Stock Trends Bullish and Bearish Crossovers indicators ( and ) will surprise sceptics.

The most well-known subset of the North American stock market is the Dow Jones Industrials. The 30 stocks that currently comprise this benchmark index are large capitalization, blue chip companies – many multinational – that cover a broader spectrum of the economy than the ‘industrials’ misnomer suggests. Although large cap stocks have a tendency toward lower price momentum than small- and mid-cap stocks, they do exhibit strong trend tendencies and lower volatility relative to the broader market. They are also supported by institutional demand dictated by their status as components of this important index. It is no wonder they are typically held by conservative investors wired into the changing fundamentals affecting the valuations of these companies.
 
In contrast, Stock Trends mechanical trading strategies dispense with the storylines of fundamental analysis and engage in a very simple but methodical application of trend line market timing. The Dow Jones Industrials Bullish Crossover Portfolio shows how simple trend-following trading strategy can be – and how the long-term returns the strategy generates are better than the market benchmark.
 
The Dow Jones Industrials Bullish Crossover Portfolio trading strategy:
BUY a component stock of the Dow Jones Industrials index when:
tagged with a “Bullish Crossover indicator
SELL a stock when:
tagged with a “Bearish Crossover indicator
 

 
* This strategy has been applied on the stock history of the 30 members of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (components from December 31, 2011) . It does not replicate this strategy on the historical components of the index. Changes to the index in the last decade, for example, brought in new membership for stocks such as Cisco Systems, Bank of America, The Travelers Cos., Kraft Foods Inc. (now replaced by UnitedHealth Group), Chevron, Pfizer Inc., and Verizon Communications Inc. See Historical Components of the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The strategy will make adjustments for changes in the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials index, however, existing portfolio stock holdings that have been removed from the index remain as holdings until the sell signal is triggered.
 
Current components of the Dow Jones Industrials Index:
 
  Stock Symbol     Stock Symbol
1 ALCOA INC AA   16 JP MORGAN CHASE CO JPM
2 AMERICAN EXPRESS INC AXP   17 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP UNH
3 BOEING CO BA   18 COCA-COLA CO THE KO
4 BANK OF AMERICA BAC   19 MCDONALDS CORP MCD
5 CATERPILLAR INC CAT   20 3M COMPANY MMM
6 CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO   21 MERCK CO INC MRK
7 CHEVRON CORP CVX   22 MICROSOFT CORP MSFT
8 DU PONT E I DE NEMOURS DD   23 PFIZER INC PFE
9 WALT DISNEY CO DIS   24 PROCTER GAMBLE CO PG
10 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE   25 APPLE INC. AAPL
11 HOME DEPOT INC HD   26 TRAVELERS CO TRV
12 HEWLETT PACKARD CO HPQ   27 UNITED TECHNOLOGIES UTX
13 INTL BUSINESS MACHINES IBM   28 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS VZ
14 INTEL CORP INTC   29 WAL-MART STORES INC WMT
15 JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ   30 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM
 

An example of this trading strategy at work

The following Stock Trends chart shows the changing trend indicators over the 5-year period from early 2007 for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT-N). It depicts three Stock Trends Bullish trend categories - all introduced by a Bullish Crossover indicator ( ) and closed by a Bearish Crossover indicator ( ). These bullish trend periods are illustrated by the green areas underneath the bar graph of the stock's weekly price. In this time period, the first Bullish trend buy for Caterpillar's stock (CAT) was on April 13, 2007 at $66.79. The stock was sold at its Bearish Crossover on December 7, 2007 at $74.20 for a trade gain of 8.9% (all returns are net of the trading system's defined transaction costs). The second position taken in CAT was at its Bullish Crossover on April 25, 2008 at $82.25. This holding was sold with the Bearish Crossover indicator of August 22, 2008 at $70.27 for a trade loss of 16.3% - quite indicative of the difficult market conditions during the unfolding financial crisis of 2008. The final bullish trend of the illustrated period is much more rewarding. The stock's Bullish Crossover on July 17, 2009 signaled another buy at $33.99 and ushered in a strong uptrend that peaked at $116.55, eventually slipping back to a bearish trend 109 weeks later. The Bearish Crossover sell signal on August 19, 2011 at $79.97 earned the position a handsome 131% return.

 

The money management rules for the portfolio are as follows:

Exposure on each position is limited to $10,000. Although the average number of positions held since 1981 is 17, the strategy could potentially require holdings of all 30 stocks at one time. Conversely, the system will not hold many stocks at all in bearish markets. During bear markets of this trading record, the portfolio holdings fell to an average of 5 or 6, while the most active year (1997) the average number of stock held by the portfolio was 26.

Transaction costs are factored into the cost of purchases and the net proceeds of sales at 1% in and 1% out, or 2% commission on a round trip.
 

 
 

 

 
DJ Industrials Bullish Crossover Portfolio strategy Performance - 1981 to 2017:
      % Returns
Year

Average

 Invested 

Capital

Net

Gain/(Loss)

ST

Portfolio*

S&P 500

Index

Difference
Since inception
37.1 years
Jan 1/1981 to Dec 31/ 2017
$ 178,385 $ 1,018,410 +15%
p.a.
+8.0%
p.a.
+7%
p.a.
2017 226,226 62,730 27.8 19.4 8.4
2016 195,472 12,597 6.4 9.5 -3.1
2015 150,566 -7,071 -4.7 -1.3 -3.4
2014 233,774 31,029 13.3 13.4 -0.1
2013 245,472 67,056 27.3 31.3 -4.0
2012 219,811 9,903 4.5 11.5 -7.0
2011 191,509 -16,287 -8.5 0.0 -8.5
2010 205,283 11,673 5.7 12.8 -7.1
2009 134,340 59,490 45.4 29.1 16.3
2008 67,547 -40,835 -59.3 -41.0 -18.3
2007 230,189 28,957 12.5 4.2 8.3
2006 203,585 23,574 11.7 13.6 -1.9
2005 156,038 -11,506 -7.4 3.0 -10.4
2004 199,811 3,099 1.6 10.4 -8.8
2003 185,283 41,862 22.7 25.2 -2.5
2002 95,660 -34,992 -36.3 -24.6 -11.7
2001 107,925 -36,875 -34.1 -12.1 -22.0
2000 129,245 -75,064 -58.1 -10.1 -48.0
1999 216,226 140,505 64.5 19.5 45.0
1998 195,283 115,399 59.1 31.0 28.1
1997 257,925 88,549 34.2 23.7 10.5
1996 239,245 103,473 43.4 22.9 20.5
1995 243,019 107,789 44.3 34.1 10.2
1994 159,057 -147 -0.1 -1.5 1.4
1993 166,981 5,114 3.1 7.1 -4.0
1992 183,396 9,184 5.0 8.2 -3.2
1991 186,415 71,615 38.2 23.7 14.5
1990 153,019 -2,212 -1.4 -7.0 5.6
1989 238,868 101,415 42.4 27.3 15.1
1988 120,755 -3,917 -3.3 12.4 -15.7
1987 200,377 -5,475 -2.7 2.1 -4.8
1986 199,245 62,940 31.4 17.8 13.6
1985 180,755 44,764 24.9 26.1 -1.2
1984 102,264 -29,285 -29.0 0.8 -29.8
1983 191,132 47,492 24.7 17.3 7.4
1982 133,962 48,723 36.8 14.8 22.0
1981 53,585 -4,535 -8.5 -10.1 1.6

* ST portfolio annual returns are based on average invested capital for the year.

 

 

 

Trading Statistics

 
Total # of positions taken: 765
# of winning positions (winning %): 345 (45.1%)
Average gain(%) per winning position: 43%
Average loss(%) per losing position: 11%
Profit factor**: 3.3
Maximum gain(%) on a position: 570%
Maximum loss(%): -45%
Annualized return on average invested capital: 15%
Average invested capital: $178,385
Average # of positions held: 18
Average # of weeks invested in each position: 45

* all trading stats compiled at December 31, 2017 

 **Profit Factor = (% of winning trades X average $ gains on winning trades) / ABSOLUTE VALUE[(% of losing trades X average $ losses on losing trades)]

 

 

 

 

The current Dow Jones Industrials Bullish Crossover Portfolio report is published weekly. It shows current holdings, as well as current buy and sell transactions. Investors can follow the report to emulate the performance of the portfolio or use this model portfolio to adjust their own holdings in these important blue chip stocks.
 
 

 

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